Monday, November 1, 2004
The Donnybrook's Official Election Prediction...
Thank God this shit is finally ending. If I'm wrong, sue me. I've got a real job...
Senator John Kerry (D)
284 Electoral Votes
47.8% of Popular Vote
President George W. Bush (R)
254 Electoral Votes
47.2% of Popular Vote
The remaining 5% of the popular vote will be split between Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik (on the ballot in 48 states) and Independent candidate Ralph Nader in some mix.
The bottom line for this election is this: The drive for change is always more passionate and powerful than the drive to maintain the status quo. This election could prove to be the ultimate demonstration of this statement. I truly believe turnout will be huge, especially among young people and minorities, and this will swing the election to Senator Kerry.
Senator Kerry will win the crucial states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Minnesota along with the rest of his "safe" states (California, New York, etc...).
President Bush will take a close victory in Florida, but will lose New Hampshire and Ohio, both of which he took in 2000.
The 3 states I feel least confident about are Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Mexico. Although, I really feel like Kerry could lose Iowa and/or New Mexico, but probably not Wisconsin.
In the Senate, I think the Democrats will pick up seats in Illinois, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Alaska while retaining seats in South Dakota, Florida, and Louisiana.
The GOP will pick up seats in Georgia (which they already had with Zell Miller), North Carolina (sadly...), and South Carolina while retaining a seat in Kentucky.
Bottom Line for the Senate: 50 Republicans, 49 Democrats, 1 Democratic-leaning Independent. A 50-50 split by all accounts...
P.S. Since I'll be on a plane to Mexico (for vacation, not emigration, even if Bush wins) on Wednesday morning, I won't be around to get your comments after the election, but I look forward to seeing some interesting dialogue when I return on the 10th...
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