Tuesday, January 1, 2008
PLAYOFF PICKS CONTEST!!!
Okay, I feel bad that I came up with the regular-season picks contest and then forgot to pick games almost every week after the start. Maybe I can make it up with a playoff run here. Here's the drill. Pick the playoffs to unfold how you think they will. We'll go something like 2 points for each wild card winner you get, four points for each second-round winner you get, eight points for each conference champion you get and 16 points for getting the world champion right.
Before I make my picks let me quickly bash ESPN who as usual, are at their instant historian best. Less than an hour after the Patriots beat the Giants Saturday the very first question the anchor asked his panel..."Are the Patriots the best team ever?" Wonderful. They have not won anything yet and they are asking if they're the best ever. Last time I checked going 16-0 does not make you world champions so it's kind of stupid to ask that question when the playoffs have not even started. But the more stupid, the more ESPN seems to like it. This is the same network that airs Skip Bayless daily and that in 2005, had a mock tournament, featuring USC against some of the greatest college football teams ever. Nevermind that this tournament started before USC even played in the national championship...the same championship it lost to Texas. ESPN never learns. Anyway, here are my picks and (because I have nothing better to do) my reasoning for picking each team.
AFC Wildcards
Jaguars 24, Steelers 21...I'm tempted to pick the Steelers because of their experience and the home-field advantage but Jacksonville is just playing so well right now. Love how Garrard doesn't have to just manage the game anymore but can win the game for the Jags.
Chargers 20, Titans 17...This is assuming Vince Young plays. Very, very tempted to pick Tennessee because San Diego has a way of going belly-up in the postseason. This is going to be what Jim Ross would call a slobberknocker. My head says Chargers find a way in the end but my heart is saying Tennessee is going to pound that offense into the dirt. Guess I'll go with my head.
NFC Wildcards
Giants 19, Buccaneers 17: Not a big fan of the Bucs who played in a crappy division and struggled against many of the good teams they played. Not a big fan of Eli Manning in a big game either but he actually played decent against the Eagles in last year's wild card. Bottom line is I think the Giants are just an all-around better team. I think Joey Galloway is the key for the Bucs. If the Giants neautralize him I think they'll prevail.
Redskins 27, Seahawks 17: Washington is one of the scariest teams to play right now. The Redskins are playing well in all facets and Seattle is another team that feasted on a terrible division. The Seahawks are battle-tested, though, but I think Washington is simply better. The thing is, not only is Washington hot, but they probably should be a lot better than 9-7. Look at all the close games they lost this season. Clock management and poor decision-making probably cost them at least two games so I look at this team and see what potentially could have been an 11 or 12-win team and that gives me the confidence to make this pick.
AFC Divisionals
Colts 34, Chargers 17...The Colts were a Vinatieri chip shot from beating this team in Week 10 on a night when Peyton Manning threw six interceptions and the Colts played without Harrison, Clark, Tony Ugoh and other key players. Now the Colts are healthy and at home and I think they rough up the Chargers who can't keep pace with that explosive offense.
Patriots 27, Jaguars 20...this is a scary, scary matchup for the Patriots who have had trouble stopping the run at times. Jacksonville's got a tough defense too that can give any team problems but I'll go with the Patriots to find a way.
NFC Divisionals
Packers 31, Giants 20...That terrible Chicago game sticks out in my mind but I think that was a mirage. The Packers roughed up the Giants in Week 2 without a running game. I think Ryan Grant makes all the difference in the world to the Packers and makes them that much tougher to beat. I think this is the game where Eli struggles and Favre goes to the title game for the first time since 1997.
Cowboys 23, Redskins 21...And this is the game where Tony Romo shows that he is a true clutch performer as he takes the Cowboys on a last-second field goal drive and ends the Redskins Cinderella run. I think T.O. makes it back for this game and makes a big impact. I think you throw away the last game these guys played since Dallas had everything clinched but the first time they played was a tussle and I expect the same this time.
AFC Championship
Colts 27, Patriots 21...As I've been saying all year I hope, I hope, I hope I'm wrong here. But people might think I'm crazy for saying this but I think the Colts are a better team than the Patriots. Think about it. Look how close the Colts were to being 15-0 going into the Titans game (which they win if they play their starters the whole time). They handled the Patriots for 51 minutes and led 20-10 without Harrison before the Patriots rally for a 24-20 win. Then I already mentioned the Chargers game and how close they were to winning that. If the Colts make a defensive stop at the end of the Patriots game and Vinatieri makes that chip-shot against the Chargers they are undefeated. And it's not like the Patriots have been destroying teams lately. In the second half of they year they had to rally four times in the fourth quarter to win and another victory was an ugly 20-10 decision against the lowly Jets. Also, Roosevelt Colvin, who had a great game against the Colts the first time is done for the year and now Harrison is back as is Ugoh...I think home-field actually could hurt the Patriots if the weather is bad. The Colts running game is more suited to bad conditions and even on a dry field I much prefer Addai to Maroney. I love Brady and the Patriots passing game but it's basically a push when you have Manning and Wayne, Harrison, Clark, Addai out of the backfield...on the other side. Defensively, the Colts might be the league's quickest and best defense. They fly to the ball and can make life miserable any team. The Patriots have a good defense but it's also aging and can wear down against a high-powered team like the Colts. These are the reasons I don't understand why everybody thinks the Patriots are so far ahead of everyone else. I hope they are right, but I don't see it. And I don't see them beating the Colts...but I hope I'm wrong.
NFC Championship
Packers 30, Cowboys 24...I think the NFL gets the hollywood type ending it wants with Favre here as he finally wins in Dallas. Packers didn't have KGB or Woodson last time they played and I think that's a huge difference maker. I think if the Packers slow Barber the secondary will not give up the big plays it did the first time these teams played. I think Ryan Grant takes pressure off Favre who plays it safer than in the first meeting and makes the big plays down the stretch to record the upset.
Super Bowl XLII
Colts 34, Packers 24...Just think the Colts have too much for a NFC team to deal with. I think the Packers and Cowboys look capable of competing and maybe beating the Colts on paper but I think there's a big gap between the AFC and NFC and it will show in this game. Please let me be wrong and have the Colts lose in the second round!
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