It's a Long Time Until November, but...

This is an NFL post, not about the Presidential election), there are some troubling signs for next season. The NFL owners and NFLPA both have the option to end the current labor deal in November. The owners are unhappy with their 40% cut of TV revenues and are likely to pull out of the current deal.

• Small-market owners such as Ralph Wilson (Buffalo) and Wayne Weaver (Jacksonville) are particularly vehement about it. They can't readily cover increased costs like the big-market owners can. The league's fat cats generate far more revenue from pricey luxury suites and corporate sponsorship packages, and needn't share it.

A central problem is that salary caps are based on total league revenues, which includes much more than TV bucks. Big market owners - NY, Dallas, Washington, etc. - paid higher prices for their teams and don't want to have to share it with owners who have teams worth far less. Players will not agree to having their share reduced - they would strike first.

• In the 2006 agreement, which was the most difficult to reach since the 1993 agreement, the players got an extra $850 million to $900 million in the form of revenue sharing, raising the salary cap for 2007 to $107 million. Upshaw estimated it will be $116 million for 2008. "Everyone's doing well," he said. "The owners say they're not making money. I think everyone is making money. This isn't hockey, where the players agreed to a 25 percent pay cut. We're not going to do anything like that."

I hope some agreement is reached, but would only put the odds at slightly over 50% right now. The small owners may not be able to get the big market guys to share $$$ or to vote for a lockout. If both sides agree to play without an agreement, there would be no salary cap,which would be particularly bad for small-market owners. What do you think will happen?
- posted by john @ 1:20 PM