Basra Surge Officially a Failure

The Mahdi Army - al-Sadr's militias - is no less powerful than when Maliki rushed in. Now, in a tacit admission of failure, the Iraqi Security Forces have dismissed 1,300 for failure to perform.

• The Iraqi government announced Sunday that it had dismissed 1,300 soldiers and policemen for refusing to fight or performing badly during last month’s offensive against Shiite militias in the southern city of Basra.

Some were sympathetic to al-Sadr already, those who were ambivalent before will likely now join the militias now that they have no reason to risk opposing them. The peace that was restored was due to al-Sadr calling his militias off the street, not because of anything the ISF did. Heard any reports of Mahdi militias laying down weapons as "ordered" by Maliki? Uh, no.

The inept ISF is the group we are counting on to slooooooowly take over and provide us with our ticket out of the hell-hole that is Iraq. As long as we insist on helping the Iraqis fight their battles and back one Shi'ite group over the other, we can count on being stuck. It will not be until we make it clear that we are leaving that any of them will have an incentive to talk to one another. Even then, what is most likely to happen is that the civil conflict we are trying to keep in the bottle will spill out. I have no confidence left that "Iraqis" have any desire for political reconciliation. To most of the groups contending for power, reconciliation means wiping out the other groups and ruling with an iron hand. Elections do not a democracy make, and Iraq has no fertile ground in which a civil society can grow.

How long will we continue to fool ourselves with false hope. Certainly until 1-21-09, and if McCain is elected it will be at least 4 years longer...
- posted by john @ 4:08 PM