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The Donnybrook
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
What Are the Odds Democrats Lose Control of the House in the 2010 Elections?

I'd put it at around 50% for now. For all those who keep singing the "dance with who brung ya" refrain, I would offer some caution from Charlie Cook:

...the Democrats' majority is built on a layer of 54 seats that the party picked up in 2006 and 2008 that are largely in purple -- or even red -- America. Democrats ought to keep in mind that 84 of their current House members represent districts won by President Bush in 2004 or John McCain in 2008.
Voters in general don't like Congress - regardless of who controls things. If Obama plays to far to the priorities of the deep-blue Dems, the odds of losing the House go way up. The Nut(Tea)Buggers may be loons, but they are fired up and will turn out to vote. Many stayed home in 2008 because McCain was not conservative enough for them. Add to that that the youth vote Obama did so well with historically does not turn out well in mid-term elections. I would love to get Nate Silver's thoughts on this.


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